NAHB to Host ‘Remodeling Economic Outlook: Housing Changes After COVID-19’

By Industry News

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz will join host Vince Butler, CAPS, GMB, GMR, and other top remodeling analysts from Harvard University and John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC) for a comprehensive review and economic outlook of the home-improvement industry. Todd Tomalak and Abbe Will — contributors to leading industry research forecasts, including the Harvard Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity and the NKBA/JBREC Kitchen and Bath Market Index — complete the speaker lineup.

Participants will hear essential remodeling insights to help them prepare as the economy reopens following COVID-19.

The webinar will:

  • Highlight the shift in remodeling trends due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Forecast remodeling market challenges and changes for the remainder of 2020.
  • Identify product demand and design preferences for reopening and work-at-home environments.

The following designations qualify for 1.0 hours of NAHB continuing education credits — CAPS, CGA, CGB, CGP, CGR, CMP, CSP, GMB, GMR, Master CGP, Master CSP and MIRM.

This webinar is open and free to everyone, Thursday, June 25, 2-4 pm ET. Register now and don’t miss this opportunity.

Single-Family Permits Robust in April

By Housing

Over the first four months of 2020 – and at the onset of the impact of the coronavirus, total single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 283,344. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an 8.5% increase over the April 2019 level of 261,119.

Year-to-date ending in April, single-family permits across the four regions ranging from an increase of 11.5% in the South to a decline of 0.6% in the Northeast. In multifamily permits, except for the West (+2.1%), all other regions reported declines – Northeast (-13.4%), Midwest (-13.4%) and the South (-2.8).

Between April 2019 YTD and April 2020 YTD, 35 states saw growth in single-family permits issued while 15 states and the District of Columbia registered a decline. South Dakota recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 35.9% from 588 to 799, while single-family permits in the District of Columbia declined by 70.5%, from 95 in 2019 to 28 in 2020. The 10 states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.5% of the total single-family permits issued.

Year-to-date, ending in April 2020, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 143,194. This is 4.5% decline over the April 2019 level of 149,921.

Between April 2019 YTD and April 2020 YTD, 23 states recorded growth while 27 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline in multifamily permits. North Dakota led the way with a sharp rise (837.1%) in multifamily permits from 35 to 328, while Michigan had the largest decline of 60.5% from 2,346 to 927. The 10 states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 65.0% of the multifamily permits issued.

IRS Proposes Rule on Like-Kind Exchanges

By Industry News

The Internal Revenue Service has released a draft regulation to define a like-kind property that is held for investment, trade or business purposes under Section 1031 of the tax code (governing like-kind exchanges). The IRS will accept comments through Aug. 11.

A like-kind exchange under U.S. tax law is a tax-deferred transaction that allows for the disposal of an asset and the acquisition of another similar asset without generating tax liability from the sale of the disposed asset.

Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Section 1031 was limited to real property.  Existing statute and regulations do not define real property for purposes of Section 1031. Determination of real property is instead accomplished using definitions obtained elsewhere in the tax code.

In addition to defining real property, the regulation seeks to clarify how taxpayers should treat certain receipts of personal property that is incidental to the real property received.

NAHB will continue to analyze the proposed regulations and plans to submit comments after a careful review.

Turning Point for the Labor Market

By Industry News

The following excerpt was recently published in NAHB’s bi-weekly e-newsletter Eye On the Economy by Chief Economist Robert Dietz: 

store reopens In a surprisingly positive reading for the labor market, recent jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate in May declined to 13.3%. The true unemployment rate is likely closer to 16% due to many who reported being “employed but absent from work” but who were most likely unemployed.

However, even with this technical adjustment, the jobless rate came in well below the 20% rate (or higher) some analysts had forecasted. (NAHB’s forecast called for a 17.8% rate for the second quarter.) This forecasting miss by those predicting a much higher level of unemployment appears to have been based on somewhat unreliable state-level jobless claims data. The unemployment rate for construction workers is currently 15.2%.

Moreover, a job gain of 2.5 million was reported for May; a striking contrast to what many analysts had predicted of a job loss of up to 8 million. Residential construction was among the top sectors in terms of the May turnaround. After posting a job loss of 422,000 in April, home builders and remodelers added 226,000 jobs last month, as housing demand improved.

The reopening of the economy in most states has led to a rapid reversal for the jobs outlook and the prospects for the beginning of a recovery in the third quarter. Housing data indicate the industry will lead the way in such a rebound…

…Historically low interest rates and a more rapid than expected improvement in the labor market should set the stage for a V-shaped recovery for housing, which in turn will provide support for the overall economy as a rebound takes shape in the second half of the year.

To subscribe to the Eye on the Economy e-newsletter, email communications@nahb.org.

Household Balance Sheets: 1Q20

By Housing

The first quarter of 2020’s Financial Accounts of the United States, the Federal Reserve’s flow of funds data, show the aggregate values of households’ assets and liabilities in the nation. Households’ real estate assets totaled $30.3 trillion and liabilities totaled $10.7 trillion, making homeowners’ equity $19.7 trillion or 65% of total household real estate.

The first quarter’s data saw a continuation in the increase in the aggregate values of home mortgages, suggesting that, prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States, there was some homebuying activity. At the same time, real estate assets’ market values increased, which was also echoed in House Price Indexes’ appreciation for the same period. As the virus killed the United States’ longest economic expansion in the U.S. on record, with GDP shrinking by 5.00% in the first quarter, in the following weeks, lenders increased their scrutiny over borrowers’ creditworthiness, with standards for mortgage approval steeply rising.

Net household equity, determined by the difference between households’ assets and liabilities, serves as an alternative means of financing for single-family homeowners. For the first quarter, net equity’s share of households’ real estate assets’ value increased from the previous quarter by one quarter of a percentage point. This phenomenon may owe more to home price appreciation as, according to the financial accounts, in the first quarter the outstanding value of home equity loans (including home equity lines of credit but excluding all loans held by individuals) taken out on one-to-four family residential mortgages decreased by $6 billion to $495.3 billion on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Ensuing quarters’ data may shed light on whether the equity was used for home equity loans, a form of non-revolving credit, or home equity lines of credit, a form of revolving credit, considering thesurge in unemployment in April.

Court Sides with OSHA, NAHB and Others on Emergency Infectious Disease Standard

By Industry News

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals Thursday rejected a petition by labor unions led by the AFL-CIO to compel OSHA to issue an “emergency temporary standard” to prevent the transmission of infectious diseases, including COVID-19.

The court agreed with OSHA’s position that it was the federal agency that should determine whether a standard was necessary and that OSHA’s decision to issue nonbinding, industry-specific guidance rather than an enforceable rule to protect workers from COVID-19 was sufficient.

OSHA said in a statement: “We are pleased with the decision from the D.C. Circuit, which agreed that OSHA reasonably determined that its existing statutory and regulatory tools are protecting America’s workers and that an emergency temporary standard is not necessary at this time. OSHA will continue to enforce the law and offer guidance to employers and employees to keep America’s workplaces safe.”

NAHB filed an amicus brief supporting OSHA’s position with a coalition of other groups including the Associated Builders and Contractors, the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, the American Subcontractors Association, Leading Builders of America, and the Mason Contractors Association of America.

With public health officials learning new information about COVID-19 and how best to mitigate related hazards on an almost daily and sometimes even hourly basis, the construction industry argued that a static, inflexible rule would not be an appropriate response.

“The D.C. Circuit’s decision correctly recognizes that OSHA is the Agency tasked by Congress to determine whether a rule is needed to protect employees from potential workplace hazards and not the courts,” said Brad Hammock, attorney at Littler Mendelson, P.C. who submitted the brief on behalf of the coalition. “In addition, the opinion reflects the significant efforts already taken by employers – including construction contractors – to address COVID-19 proactively.”

NAHB and its construction safety coalition partners issued job site coronavirus safety guidance in late March and has been constantly adding new resources to keep workers safe from COVID-19 on the job site. The entire construction industry held safety stand downs in April focused on coronavirus safety.

See all of NAHB’s COVID-19 safety resources.

For any questions about NAHB safety education, contact Christian Culligan. For questions about NAHB litigation, contact Felicia Watson.

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