The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to hasten a housing trend already taking place across the nation – residential construction activity that is expanding at a more rapid rate in lower density markets such as smaller cities and rural areas. Multifamily development is also proceeding at a brisk pace in areas where education and health services dominate. These are among the findings of the latest quarterly NAHB Home Building Geography Index (HBGI).

“We expect the virus could affect future housing preferences for those currently living in the hardest-hit, high density environments like central cities and that housing demand will continue to increase in medium- and low-density communities,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon.

“The first quarter HBGI data reveals that construction growth expanded over the last year more quickly in low population density areas than high density regions,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “This trend will continue as households seek out single-family homes further from urban cores, particularly as telecommuting continues in greater numbers.”

An unavoidable lesson of the public health crisis associated with COVID-19 is that major metropolitan areas faced greater challenges. High density lifestyles, championed by some urban planners over the last decade as a rival to suburban living, proved to be vulnerable to a virus due to crowded living conditions, dependency on mass transit, and insufficient health and public sector infrastructure.

The HBGI found that even before the pandemic hit, home construction activity was increasing at a higher rate in inner and outer suburbs than in high-density markets.

First quarter HBGI findings show:

• Single-family construction expanded across all seven economic geographies, posting the strongest growth (9.1%) in outlying suburbs (exurbs) of small metro areas, as measured on a one-year moving average.
• Over the past year, apartment construction growth in less dense markets has outpaced expansion in larger metropolitan areas.
• All economic geographies reported net growth over the past year for single-family and multifamily construction, a reminder of the momentum home building possessed before the current recession.

The HBGI is a quarterly measurement of building conditions across the country and uses county-level information about single- and multifamily permits to gauge housing construction growth in various urban and rural regions.

The first quarter HBGI also features a new economic geography class based on local employment in the education and health services sector (EHS). Given the public health crisis associated with COVID-19, this sector is of critical importance. The HBGI designates EHS-focused regional markets as the top quartile of counties based on this employment share (25.7% or above of total employment). These counties also make up 23.2% of the U.S. population. This analysis finds:

• 4% of single-family construction occurs in EHS markets;
• 4% of multifamily construction occurs in these markets;
• Multifamily construction has outpaced single-family construction in these markets over the past year;
• Multifamily construction has expanded at nearly twice the growth rate of the rest of the construction in EHS markets over the past year; and
• Single-family construction was growing in EHS markets, but the rate was slower than the rest of the nation.

As smart technology and connected devices increase in demand, so does the importance of managing their energy use and software. The new ENERGY STAR Smart Home Energy Management Systems (SHEMS) Program establishes standards in this arena. For instance, many home buyers want security cameras, video doorbells and programmable thermostats for security and an increased sense of control. These features can increase the energy load in the home, so the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed a standard for the energy management of all these systems.

Falling under the robust ENERGY STAR brand, SHEMS is a package of other ENERGY STAR-certified devices and services. The goal of the program is to ensure that devices are running efficiently and only when needed. In other words, it’s a smart-home service platform and a combination of smart-home devices that connect and subsequently:

• Sense occupancy in the home;
• Schedule and automate energy based on occupancy;
• Report that energy to users; and
• Control devices based on time-of-use electric rates.

To be considered a package, devices must include at least one ENERGY STAR-certified smart thermostat, at least two connected lighting devices (such as an ENERGY STAR bulb or fixture), and one plug load control/management device (home energy monitor, smart plug, etc.). To optimize control of other devices, encouraged (but optional) technologies include refrigerators, clothes washers and dryers, pool pumps, air conditioners and other ENERGY STAR-certified devices.

Version 1 of the SHEMS specification was finalized in fall 2019; performance metrics and the first certified SHEMS packages are expected to be rolled out later in 2020. SHEMS becomes an ENERGY STAR-certified product when many devices are bundled and combined with various services that monitor and control energy use in the home, communicate with the cloud, and interact with the grid.

A program like this could be vital for saving consumers money through smart energy management, particularly as residents become more educated about ongoing home maintenance costs, the total cost of homeownership, and have the desire to keep utility bills low. To learn more about becoming a partner and to view webinars based on your company’s services, visit ENEGY STAR’s website.

For more information about NAHB’s sustainable and green building programs, visit nahb.org. To stay current on the high-performance residential building sector, follow NAHB’s Sustainability and Green Building team on Twitter.

By an overwhelming vote of 417-1, the House on May 28 approved legislation that would liberalize rules under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to give business owners more time to have the loans forgiven by the U.S. government.

Under the PPP loan program, which passed Congress earlier this spring as part of the CARES Act, small businesses with fewer than 500 employees can take out loans equal to 2.5 times their average monthly payroll from 2019 with the total capped at $10 million. For many businesses that meet key conditions on the use of these funds, the loans may be forgiven.

The bill approved by the House, called the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act, would make it easier for small businesses to utilize funds under the PPP and still qualify for loan forgiveness. Specifically, the House bill would:

• Increase the timeline for businesses to spend their loan money on payroll in order for it to be forgiven from the current eight-week deadline to 24 weeks;
• Extend the June 30 rehiring deadline for laid-off employees to Dec. 31;
• Reduce the requirement that 75% of loan money must be spent on payroll in order for the loan to be forgiven  to 60%; and
• Provide more leeway on loan forgiveness for employers if they show they were unable to rehire employees or reopen to business in a way that complies with safety standards.

The Senate is working on its own version. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who chairs the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepeneurship, is seeking to extend the eight-week rehiring deadline to 16 weeks instead of the 24 weeks in the House bill. Rubio tweeted that the House bill is “good,” but expressed concerns that some provisions of the legislation could lead to “unintended consequences.”

NAHB continues to urge Congress to ensure the PPP guidelines align with congressional intent to allow more workers in the residential construction sector to access the loan program. Specifically, NAHB is urging Congress to provide a waiver from eligibility restrictions in the existing Small Business Administration 7(a) loan program to allow single-family and multifamily home builders, land developers, multifamily property owners and 501(c)(6) organizations access to the PPP.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provides the latest weekly economic analysis on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic:

With one major exception, this week’s housing data showed some signs of stabilization after an effective two-month pause for major portions of the U.S. economy. While most indicators are down year-over-year, there are hints of a rebound in the data, provided businesses can continue to reopen as the virus slows its growth. As the housing sector enters this recession underbuilt, it is a sector with both pent-up housing demand and sensitivity to low interest rates, which places it in a good position to recover more quickly than other sectors of the economy.

Indeed, in the most promising sign, mortgage purchase applications increased for the sixth straight week, supported by historically low mortgage rates (3.4% average). Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association found a 9% week-over-week gain, with a 54% improvement since early April and standing at the highest level since mid-March.

These gains foreshadowed the surprise in the April new home sales data from the Census Bureau. The estimates revealed that the seasonally adjust annual sales pace of new, single-family homes was effectively unchanged from March, with the measured volume at a 623,000 annualized rate. The surprising April data (NAHB expected close to a 20% decline), and strong start in January and February, left new home sales for the first four months of the year 1% higher than the first four months of 2019. The April rate is nonetheless 20% lower than the January pace. A downward revision is still possible for the April sales estimate, but the initial report is a reminder of housing’s potential to lead a recovery.

The resale housing market did not fare as well as the newly-built market in April. As estimated by the National Association of Realtors, pending resales fell almost 22% for the month, with projected sales volume down 34% compared to a year ago. Listings have declined as owners of existing homes have been reluctant to place their residences on the market. In turn, this tight inventory environment has benefitted ready-to-occupy new construction as housing demand shows relative strength.

Ultimately, whether the recent momentum in housing markets can be sustained depends on the labor market. It is the job numbers where the contrast between the recent gains for mortgage applications run counter to ongoing, historic challenges for employment. First-time jobless claims continued to be too high, but they are slowing. This week’s total was 2.1 million, leaving a net count of almost 41 million job losses (25% of the workforce) in just 10 weeks. However, continuing claims (ongoing unemployed) declined from 24.9 million to 21 million – a suggestion of renewed hiring.

This macroeconomic uncertainty was also reflected in a staggering jump for the national savings rate, which increased to 33% in April, by far the highest reading since the government began measuring it in the 1960s. The rate was just 7.9% in January, with the recent gains a strong indicator of economic concerns as households build cash reserves. Consequently, consumer spending fell approximately 14% in April, but these savings, combined with increasing economic opportunity from the reopening of various sectors, should allow an unlocking of a significant amount of pent-up consumer demand. That impact, plus ongoing improvement in housing, should help set the stage for better economic data ahead.