Private Residential Spending Slides in April

By Housing

NAHB analysis of the Census Construction Spending data shows total private residential construction spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $536.8 billion in April. It was down 4.5% in April, after a 0.2% dip in March, due to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 lockdowns. On a year-over-year basis, however, total private construction spending rose 6.2%.

The monthly declines are largely attributed to the slowdown of spending on single-family and multifamily construction. Spending on single-family construction slid down 6.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $281.0 billion, after a decrease of 1.5% in March. This decline mirrors broader declines in single-family starts in April. Multifamily construction spending plunged 9.1% in April, following a dip of 0.1% in March. Private residential improvements, which include spending on remodeling, major replacements, and additions to owner-occupied housing units, stayed flat at a $202.2 billion annual pace in April.

The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the solid growth in single-family construction and home improvement from the second half of 2019 to February 2020, before the COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy. New multifamily construction spending has slowed since August 2019, after strong growth from 2010 to 2016 and a surge from late 2018 to early 2019.

 

Spending on private nonresidential construction declined 1.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $467.2 billion. The monthly nonresidential spending decline was mainly due to less spending on the class of commercial ($2.0 billion), followed by the educational category ($1.5 billion), and power ($1.1 billion).

How Smart Homes Could Benefit from Energy Management Systems

By Industry News

As smart technology and connected devices increase in demand, so does the importance of managing their energy use and software. The new ENERGY STAR Smart Home Energy Management Systems (SHEMS) Program establishes standards in this arena. For instance, many home buyers want security cameras, video doorbells and programmable thermostats for security and an increased sense of control. These features can increase the energy load in the home, so the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed a standard for the energy management of all these systems.

Falling under the robust ENERGY STAR brand, SHEMS is a package of other ENERGY STAR-certified devices and services. The goal of the program is to ensure that devices are running efficiently and only when needed. In other words, it’s a smart-home service platform and a combination of smart-home devices that connect and subsequently:

  • Sense occupancy in the home;
  • Schedule and automate energy based on occupancy;
  • Report that energy to users; and
  • Control devices based on time-of-use electric rates.

To be considered a package, devices must include at least one ENERGY STAR-certified smart thermostat, at least two connected lighting devices (such as an ENERGY STAR bulb or fixture), and one plug load control/management device (home energy monitor, smart plug, etc.). To optimize control of other devices, encouraged (but optional) technologies include refrigerators, clothes washers and dryers, pool pumps, air conditioners and other ENERGY STAR-certified devices.

Version 1 of the SHEMS specification was finalized in fall 2019; performance metrics and the first certified SHEMS packages are expected to be rolled out later in 2020. SHEMS becomes an ENERGY STAR-certified product when many devices are bundled and combined with various services that monitor and control energy use in the home, communicate with the cloud, and interact with the grid.

A program like this could be vital for saving consumers money through smart energy management, particularly as residents become more educated about ongoing home maintenance costs, the total cost of homeownership, and have the desire to keep utility bills low. To learn more about becoming a partner and to view webinars based on your company’s services, visit ENEGY STAR’s website.

For more information about NAHB’s sustainable and green building programs, visit nahb.org. To stay current on the high-performance residential building sector, follow NAHB’s Sustainability and Green Building team on Twitter.

52% of Builders Used Incentives to Bolster Sales in May 2020

By Housing

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey conducted in May 2020 reveals that 48% of single-family builders are not using incentives to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations. This of course implies that slightly more than half, 52%, are using some kind of incentive to achieve that objective.

What specific incentives are they using? Figure 1 shows the complete list, but the three most likely are:

  • Options or upgrades at no or reduced cost (19% of builders report using)
  • Payment of closing costs or fees (19%)
  • Price discounts/Margin reductions (18%)

Importantly, builders who are using incentives report that paying for closing costs/fees is the most effective strategy, with 27% rating it ‘very effective’ and 56% ‘somewhat effective.’

Figure 1. Incentives Currently Being Used to Bolster Sales/Limit Cancellations
(Percent of respondents)

Historical context for the current findings is important in order to understand prior use of incentives. As Figure 2 shows, the use of incentives was much more widespread during the last housing recession, with 73% and 71% of builders, respectively, reporting their use in May 2007 and March 2008. By April of 2019, the share had fallen to 64%. In May 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, ‘only’ 52% of builders were offering buyers any kind of incentive. This is essentially the same share of builders providing incentives as back in April of 2003.

Figure 2. Share of Builders Offering Some Type of Incentive to
Bolster Sales/Limit Cancellations – History
(Percent of Respondents)

House Passes Bill to Expand Loan Forgiveness Provisions of PPP Loans

By Industry News

By an overwhelming vote of 417-1, the House on May 28 approved legislation that would liberalize rules under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to give business owners more time to have the loans forgiven by the U.S. government.

Under the PPP loan program, which passed Congress earlier this spring as part of the CARES Act, small businesses with fewer than 500 employees can take out loans equal to 2.5 times their average monthly payroll from 2019 with the total capped at $10 million. For many businesses that meet key conditions on the use of these funds, the loans may be forgiven.

The bill approved by the House, called the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act, would make it easier for small businesses to utilize funds under the PPP and still qualify for loan forgiveness. Specifically, the House bill would:

  • Increase the timeline for businesses to spend their loan money on payroll in order for it to be forgiven from the current eight-week deadline to 24 weeks;
  • Extend the June 30 rehiring deadline for laid-off employees to Dec. 31;
  • Reduce the requirement that 75% of loan money must be spent on payroll in order for the loan to be forgiven  to 60%; and
  • Provide more leeway on loan forgiveness for employers if they show they were unable to rehire employees or reopen to business in a way that complies with safety standards.

The Senate is working on its own version. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who chairs the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepeneurship, is seeking to extend the eight-week rehiring deadline to 16 weeks instead of the 24 weeks in the House bill. Rubio tweeted that the House bill is “good,” but expressed concerns that some provisions of the legislation could lead to “unintended consequences.”

NAHB continues to urge Congress to ensure the PPP guidelines align with congressional intent to allow more workers in the residential construction sector to access the loan program. Specifically, NAHB is urging Congress to provide a waiver from eligibility restrictions in the existing Small Business Administration 7(a) loan program to allow single-family and multifamily home builders, land developers, multifamily property owners and 501(c)(6) organizations access to the PPP.

Housing Stands Poised to Lead a Recovery

By Industry News

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provides the latest weekly economic analysis on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic:

arrowWith one major exception, this week’s housing data showed some signs of stabilization after an effective two-month pause for major portions of the U.S. economy. While most indicators are down year-over-year, there are hints of a rebound in the data, provided businesses can continue to reopen as the virus slows its growth. As the housing sector enters this recession underbuilt, it is a sector with both pent-up housing demand and sensitivity to low interest rates, which places it in a good position to recover more quickly than other sectors of the economy.

Indeed, in the most promising sign, mortgage purchase applications increased for the sixth straight week, supported by historically low mortgage rates (3.4% average). Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association found a 9% week-over-week gain, with a 54% improvement since early April and standing at the highest level since mid-March.

These gains foreshadowed the surprise in the April new home sales data from the Census Bureau. The estimates revealed that the seasonally adjust annual sales pace of new, single-family homes was effectively unchanged from March, with the measured volume at a 623,000 annualized rate. The surprising April data (NAHB expected close to a 20% decline), and strong start in January and February, left new home sales for the first four months of the year 1% higher than the first four months of 2019. The April rate is nonetheless 20% lower than the January pace. A downward revision is still possible for the April sales estimate, but the initial report is a reminder of housing’s potential to lead a recovery.

The resale housing market did not fare as well as the newly-built market in April. As estimated by the National Association of Realtors, pending resales fell almost 22% for the month, with projected sales volume down 34% compared to a year ago. Listings have declined as owners of existing homes have been reluctant to place their residences on the market. In turn, this tight inventory environment has benefitted ready-to-occupy new construction as housing demand shows relative strength.

Ultimately, whether the recent momentum in housing markets can be sustained depends on the labor market. It is the job numbers where the contrast between the recent gains for mortgage applications run counter to ongoing, historic challenges for employment. First-time jobless claims continued to be too high, but they are slowing. This week’s total was 2.1 million, leaving a net count of almost 41 million job losses (25% of the workforce) in just 10 weeks. However, continuing claims (ongoing unemployed) declined from 24.9 million to 21 million – a suggestion of renewed hiring.

This macroeconomic uncertainty was also reflected in a staggering jump for the national savings rate, which increased to 33% in April, by far the highest reading since the government began measuring it in the 1960s. The rate was just 7.9% in January, with the recent gains a strong indicator of economic concerns as households build cash reserves. Consequently, consumer spending fell approximately 14% in April, but these savings, combined with increasing economic opportunity from the reopening of various sectors, should allow an unlocking of a significant amount of pent-up consumer demand. That impact, plus ongoing improvement in housing, should help set the stage for better economic data ahead.

April Personal Income Up 10.5% Due to CARES

By Housing

The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income surged in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $20,674 billion. The 10.5% increase in personal income was largely the effects of Federal Pandemic Response Programs. Among the $360.5 billion increase in unemployment insurance, there were $132.0 billion in Pandemic Unemployment Compensation Payments, $24.5 billion in Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, and $0.7 billion in Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation. However, compensation declined around 7.7% in April, after a 3.2% drop in March.

Real disposable income (income remaining after adjusting for taxes and inflation) was up 13.4% after a 1.8% loss in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) plunged 13.6% in April after a decline of 6.9% in March. This unprecedented 13.6% decline was the steepest monthly decline since 1959, as businesses were shut down and households complied with the ‘stay-at-home’ orders.

In April, the rise in personal income and the drop in consumer spending pushed the personal savings rate to 33%. Personal savings increased to $6.15 billion (SAAR), almost triple the amount of savings in March. This record high savings rate reflects a slowdown in spending and economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic.